If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
There is a narrow chance that the central bank may cut rates in the future, according to a poll of 15 economists and treasurers.
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Industry's demand for a reduction in the repo rate, currently 8 per cent, has gained momentum after wholesale and retail inflation eased in February.
'If you see another 1000-point correction, people may start panicking.'
Gaurav Garg, head of research at CapitalVia Global Research Limited will answer your stock market queries.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the Union Budget for Financial Year 2023-24 (FY24), Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had held forth on the need for better governance and investor protection in the banking sector. She had proposed certain amendments to the Reserve Bank of India Act (RBI Act), 1934; the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act), 1949; and the Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertakings) Act, 1970.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
'Overall, domestic demand has moderated significantly. 'The weakening of private consumption, which for long has been the bedrock of aggregate demand, in particular, is a matter of concern,' RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in the MPC meetings, in October.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The RBI has doubled the limit of maximum balance that an individual customer can hold with payments banks to Rs 2 lakh from Rs 1 lakh earlier with immediate effect to expand the ability of such lenders to cater to the needs of MSMEs and other businesses.
Manufacturing activities in India touched a three-month high in March boosted by faster expansions in new orders and output amid demand resilience and easing of cost pressures, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 55.3 in February to 56.4 in March, signalling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 21st straight month.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
'The no-rate cut policy and preference to wait for the Budget and clarity on the fiscal front demonstrate RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is maturing in his new role,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India's manufacturing sector activity hit the highest level in eight months in July, driven by a significant rise in business orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 53.9 in June to 56.4 in July, reflecting the strongest improvement in the health of the sector in eight months. The July PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 13th straight month.
The government on Wednesday appointed RBI's senior-most executive director M Rajeshwar Rao as the deputy governor of the central bank. Rao was appointed to the post vacated by N S Vishwanathan, who stepped down three months ahead of his extended tenure on health grounds.
North Block and Mint Road seem likely to now stick to the earlier convention of the RBI governor coming to Delhi and being the only MPC member meeting the finance minister and senior bureaucrats on pre-policy meetings
The central bank can directly print money and finance the government, but it should avoid doing so unless there is absolutely no alternative, former RBI governor D Subbarao on Wednesday said while pointing out that India is 'nowhere' near such a scenario. In an interview with PTI, Subbarao suggested that to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 induced slowdown in the economy, the government can consider Covid bonds as an option to raise borrowing, not in addition to budgeted borrowing, but as a part of that.
This is the second high profile resignation in the past six months at the Reserve Bank of India.
He will be the eighth Deputy Governor to be made Governor at RBI
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced an extension of interim ways and means advances (WMAs) limit of Rs 51,560 crore to state governments till September, to help them tide over the financial stress posed by the second wave of COVID-19. WMAs are temporary advances given by the RBI to the states to tide over any mismatch in receipts and payments. There are two types of WMA - normal and special. While normal WMA are clean advances, special WMA are secured advances provided against the pledge of the government of India dated securities.
'If the RBI now only prints Rs 100 in small denomination notes and the remaining amount is printed in Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 denominations, then by March-end the central bank can completely normalise the cash crunch situation.'
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
Reserve Bank, in its mid term review of the monetary policy on Friday, decided to hike short term policy rate by 0.25 per cent after a gap of two years and ease liquidity by reducing the marginal standing facility rate for banks.
The principal challenge for Rajan's successor is to work with the Bank Board Bureau and the finance ministry to complete these processes of banking reform.
A staunch defender of demonetisation, it would be interesting to see how he handles the government's increasing demand for more cash from the RBI, and letting some weak banks get out of prompt corrective action.
By no means do economists see the Reserve Bank of India stop at just a 25-bp cut. Some of the economists such as Soumyakanti Ghosh of State Bank of India are of the firm view that rates have room to fall by a total of 75 bps in the current financial year, starting with 25 bps in the August 7 policy.
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
HDFC Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, falling 2.99 per cent, followed by Adani Ports at 2.87 per cent.
Most central banks across the world have around 5-7 years of tenure for the governor and deputy governors.
India's services sector lost momentum in July as demand was curtailed by competitive pressures, elevated inflation and unfavourable weather, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 59.2 in June to 55.5 in July, pointing to the slowest rate of growth in four months. For the 12th straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
While a pick-up in summer monsoon rains in recent weeks is expected to cool food inflation, most analysts don't anticipate another rate cut before a new governor is on the job
Are we adopting an idea whose time has come and gone? My feeling is, yes, says ex-banker C Joseph Chacko in the fourth article of the series on inflation targeting.
It is the six per cent target RBI is more concerned about.
'The prime minister's comment on 'revdi culture' was welcome. But I am disappointed he did not follow up on that.' 'All political parties, including the BJP, have been guilty of this.' 'Now, Modi's guarantees, the Congress's 'nyay' path and both ruling and Opposition parties are vying with each other for freebies in my home state Andhra Pradesh.'
Shifting its stance of monetary policy towards targeting retail inflation as it is an "inequitable tax", RBI today said it may exceed 8 per cent by March end and efforts will continue to bring it down.
He argued that if inflation is low, stable and moving towards the 4 per cent target, why has the RBI not revised downward the bank rate fixed in June 2023?
The government on Wednesday asked the Reserve Bank to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for another five-year period ending March 2026. To control the price rise, the government in 2016 gave a mandate to the RBI to keep the retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side for a five-year period ending March 31, 2021.
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