Raghuram Rajan called for purposeful and effective action to counter the atmosphere of cynicism, which has slowed down the decision making process.
The government had amended the RBI Act through Finance Act 2016.
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
Terming the RBI action on Wednesday as a "pleasant surprise", analysts today cautioned that possibility of a rate hike in the future cannot be ruled out. Urijit Patel committee's report on monetary policy would clear the air on RBI's future stand, they added.
The first major aspect is that of the veto power to the governor.
RBI governor is seen succeeding International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief executive officer, Christine Lagarde, next year.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
'For the RBI, for a central bank, reputational risk is the worst risk.' 'Credibility is the worst risk,'
Reliance Industries was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying nearly 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, TCS and L&T.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The services sector growth in India fell to a one-year low in November on softer expansions in new work intakes and output, despite receding price pressures, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services Business Activity Index fell from 58.4 in October to a one-year low of 56.9 in November. Despite witnessing a month-on-month decline, the rate of expansion was stronger than its long-run average.
Consumer prices rose an annual 5.11 per cent (2012 base) in January.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
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Industry's demand for a reduction in the repo rate, currently 8 per cent, has gained momentum after wholesale and retail inflation eased in February.
There is a narrow chance that the central bank may cut rates in the future, according to a poll of 15 economists and treasurers.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
'Even if there is a third wave or a fourth wave, it is hard to see the economy will suffer like that (during the first wave).'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed the strongest rate of growth in three months in July amid improved demand conditions and easing of some local COVID-19 restrictions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.1 in June to 55.3 in July, pointing to the strongest rate of growth in three months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
Gaurav Garg, head of research at CapitalVia Global Research Limited will answer your stock market queries.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das had stumped the market in the previous two policies - in August and in October - first with action and then with words. In August, it was the introduction of an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) to take out excess liquidity, which took the markets by surprise. In October, there was no action. Rather, what is known as "open mouth operation", Das' comment that the central bank might conduct open market operations (OMOs) by selling bonds tempered the euphoria in the bond markets after JP Morgan's inclusion of India in its Emerging Market Bond Index.
'Overall, domestic demand has moderated significantly. 'The weakening of private consumption, which for long has been the bedrock of aggregate demand, in particular, is a matter of concern,' RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in the MPC meetings, in October.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
North Block and Mint Road seem likely to now stick to the earlier convention of the RBI governor coming to Delhi and being the only MPC member meeting the finance minister and senior bureaucrats on pre-policy meetings
'If the RBI now only prints Rs 100 in small denomination notes and the remaining amount is printed in Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 denominations, then by March-end the central bank can completely normalise the cash crunch situation.'
Reserve Bank, in its mid term review of the monetary policy on Friday, decided to hike short term policy rate by 0.25 per cent after a gap of two years and ease liquidity by reducing the marginal standing facility rate for banks.
He will be the eighth Deputy Governor to be made Governor at RBI
'The no-rate cut policy and preference to wait for the Budget and clarity on the fiscal front demonstrate RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is maturing in his new role,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
The principal challenge for Rajan's successor is to work with the Bank Board Bureau and the finance ministry to complete these processes of banking reform.
The RBI has doubled the limit of maximum balance that an individual customer can hold with payments banks to Rs 2 lakh from Rs 1 lakh earlier with immediate effect to expand the ability of such lenders to cater to the needs of MSMEs and other businesses.
This is the second high profile resignation in the past six months at the Reserve Bank of India.
The government on Wednesday appointed RBI's senior-most executive director M Rajeshwar Rao as the deputy governor of the central bank. Rao was appointed to the post vacated by N S Vishwanathan, who stepped down three months ahead of his extended tenure on health grounds.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
